Conference tournaments have been completed, tickets have been punched and tears have been shed. Bracketology is the buzzword and picking upsets is the current pastime of choice. March Madness is in the air.

Like waking up to a Christmas tree with dozens of presents under it, a virgin NCAA bracket holds the excitement and promise of Christmas morning, and this year’s tournament looks to be as exciting as every other year. It will not disappoint.

This year’s tournament, oddly enough, has four clear-cut number one seeds in North Carolina, Kansas, Memphis and UCLA. If there was to be a year to pick four No. 1’s to go to the Final Four, this might be it. However, it has never happened, and it never will happen. One or more of those teams will slip up before the Final Four. There is little doubt about that.

An obvious choice is Memphis, who, while 33-1 on the season, hasn’t played a legitimate opponent since it lost to Tennessee in late February. Memphis also has terrible free-throw shooting, something that is imperative to deep runs in the tournament. We’ve seen it before, and I’m sure we’ll see it again. Memphis will not live up to its hype.

Overrated teams are often debated when March Madness rolls around. The key to identifying the overrated teams is dissecting their strength of schedule and determining how many quality wins they have. Then you apply those findings to the seed that team received. Examples of some overrated teams are Oklahoma, Washington State, Purdue and Butler.

Washington State at 24-8 has been getting respect the entire year but has yet to beat a ranked team. They drew probably the hardest region by being placed in the East and have to face a sneaky Winthrop team in the first round. If they survive that game, they face Notre Dame and are out.

The same can be said about Butler, a team that was somehow ranked near the top 10 throughout the entire year. I’m a mid-major supporter for sure, but there is absolutely no way that Butler is a top-10 team. It’s tough to get respect when your losses on the season include Wright State and Cleveland State. Butler is out in the first round.

The best part about March Madness, though, are the underdogs. This year’s tournament has several low seeds that went to major schools like Villanova, Kansas State, Baylor and Georgia. These can be scary first round matchups, since such schools have played tough schedules the entire season because they come from major conferences. That being said, I really like Villanova making it to the Sweet Sixteen. They are severely underrated at a 12-seed and had a decent showing in the Big East. If they beat Clemson they face an overrated Vanderbilt team that has had trouble down the stretch.

Another curious underdog in this tournament is Drake. Drake had an amazing year that no one saw coming and finished with a 28-4 record. They play in the underrated Missouri Valley conference, where they had a completely dominant season. To me it seems like everyone is sleeping on them and giving them no respect. Last year, Southern Illinois came from that conference and subsequently made it to the Sweet Sixteen. I have the same prediction for Drake. They shoot lights out and have the tools to take down Connecticut in the second round.

Several intriguing first round matchups present themselves as well. USC and O.J. Mayo against Kansas State and Michael Beasley will be a terrific matchup. I’m also excited to see if potential upset-minded teams like South Alabama and Davidson can make some noise after the first round. Both teams come from weak conferences but have played tough teams quite close.

But, as always, you can’t win your bracket pool without correctly identifying the champion or getting half of your Final Four correct. This year’s Final Four looks something like Kansas, Texas, UCLA and Tennessee. Like I said before, there are four clear cut teams, but one of them is bound to slip up. Kansas is on a roll like no other, so it can’t be them, and UCLA has been a powerhouse the entire season.

On a gut feeling, I’m going against the grain and predicting a North Carolina downfall to Tennessee. Everyone who watched the Tennessee/Memphis matchup saw the intensity of the Volunteers. Their offense has seldom been stopped and they take care of business from the three-point line.

Call me crazy, but I think North Carolina got entirely too much hype this season in spite of their 32-2 record. The Tar Heels are good, but I always feel like they are missing something when I watch them. As bold as it sounds, choosing Tennessee as the national champion seems like the right thing to do. I know they will be overlooked in favor of more powerful teams, but they have what it takes to get the job done.